China to US container freight: a Shenzhen forwarder says book at least a month ahead, and one executive quotes about $12,000 a container to Los Angeles
A Shenzhen forwarder told Yicai on October 28 that same-week sea bookings to the US are hard to get, and a Shenzhen executive put a China to Los Angeles container at about $12,000. Here is what that does to your cost per unit.
A Shenzhen forwarder says sea freight to the US now has to be booked at least a month ahead, and the chief executive of a Shenzhen technology company says a container from China to Los Angeles costs about $12,000, up from possibly under $6,000 in the second quarter, according to a report by Chinese business broadcaster Yicai (第一财经) on October 28. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's weekly SCFI composite stood at 3,681.34 on October 23.
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The short version
- Yicai's report from Shenzhen, published October 28, says the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for cross-border e-commerce and that sea freight rates have been rising and fluctuating, with tight space on ships.
- A business director at a Bao'an logistics company, whose business is about 80% US, told Yicai her firm has already booked its November space. Her words: "Booking the same week or a week ahead, you basically can't get space." Booking a month ahead still works, she said.
- The chief executive of Shenzhen company 莱特美特科技 told Yicai a container from China to Los Angeles was possibly under $6,000 in the second quarter and is about $12,000 now (the report does not give the container size). Yicai reports that rates rose month by month from April, fastest in August, eased somewhat in September with a limited drop, and remain high year on year. These are figures reported by Yicai, not an official rate.
- The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's weekly SCFI composite, which covers all its export routes together, was 3,681.34 on October 23, up 1.76 points from 3,679.58 on October 16.
By the numbers
Key dates
- 27Nov Black Friday (US)
What changed
A Shenzhen forwarder told Yicai (October 28) that October is the last wave for goods meant to sell over Black Friday and Christmas to go by sea; after that, she said, sellers may have to use higher-cost channels such as air freight. Yicai reports that bulky, low-margin home goods are more noticeably affected and their buyers are stocking up more cautiously, while small, high-value consumer electronics are less affected and still shipping as normal. For Europe, rail is one alternative the forwarder mentioned; for the US, sea remains the main route.
The report also describes a Shenzhen Customs model for cross-border e-commerce goods at a Longhua logistics yard: goods are declared and inspected as loose cargo, and per Yicai, goods with an issue are handled separately so other cleared goods in the same container can keep loading. A deputy section chief at Guanlan Customs (Shenzhen Customs) told Yicai the model has covered exports worth 2.4 billion yuan, raised logistics efficiency by more than 30% and cut clearance to as little as one day. Yicai also reports that Yantian port has 5 to 6 scheduled sailings a day to and from US ports.
The SCFI is published weekly by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Its route rates include ocean freight and surcharges such as the peak season surcharge (PSS) and bunker charges. The composite covers all routes together, so it does not track a single Los Angeles quote; it moved 1.76 points in the week to October 23, holding level that week.
What it means for your business
If you import a full or shared container from China for holiday sales, the cost that moved most this year is freight, and freight per unit depends on how many units fit in the box. Using the two container prices quoted to Yicai (possibly under $6,000 in the second quarter, about $12,000 now, both approximate), here is the freight cost per unit for three illustrative loads:
| Units per container (illustrative) | Freight per unit at $6,000 | Freight per unit at $12,000 | Extra per unit (roughly) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 500 (bulky home goods, e.g. small furniture) | $12.00 | $24.00 | $12.00 |
| 2,000 (mid-size boxed goods) | $3.00 | $6.00 | $3.00 |
| 10,000 (small electronics accessories) | $0.60 | $1.20 | $0.60 |
Our arithmetic: container price divided by units. Illustrative loads, not quotes; your forwarder's all-in price and your packed carton count decide the real figure. US ad valorem duty is generally charged on the goods' transaction value, which excludes international freight when it is invoiced separately, so this cost adds to your landed cost one for one.
Our own illustration shows why bulky goods feel it more: at 500 units a container, the extra $12 is 30% of the price of a $40 item, while at 10,000 units it is 60 cents. Put your own numbers into our landed cost calculator (prefilled with $12,000 freight and 2,000 units) to see your cost per unit and margin at today's rate.
Timing matters as much as price. If sea space must be booked about a month ahead and, as one forwarder put it, October is the last sea wave for holiday selling, stock that is not booked yet may have to choose between missing the season and paying for air freight. The report does not cover sea transit times, so ask your forwarder for the arrival date with any booking.
Who is affected
- Importers bringing full or shared sea containers from China to the US for Black Friday and Christmas stock.
- Amazon FBA sellers whose inbound shipments sail from Shenzhen and other South China ports.
- Sellers of bulky, low-margin goods (furniture, home goods), whose per-unit freight rises the most.
What to do now
- Ask your forwarder today for an all-in quote and the first sailing with space; book at least a month ahead, as the Shenzhen forwarders describe.
- Recalculate your landed cost per unit with the new freight quote before you set holiday prices or reorder.
- For bulky items, ask your supplier whether repacking (flat-pack, nested or smaller cartons) can fit more units in the same container.
- If your stock is not booked yet, compare the cost of air freight for a small first batch with the cost of missing the season.
- Watch the SCFI each Friday for the direction of rates, and keep the quote your forwarder gives you as the number you plan with.
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